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Table of contents
Thinking in Tensions and Probabilities
A practical path to Janusian, dialectical, and Bayesian reasoning for better judgment
Read each section in order. Every title can be opened as a TheoryTrace document.
- Cover1
- Copyright2
- How to read this book3
- Introduction4
- Chapter 1: Why Better Thinking Needs More Than Logic5
- Chapter 2: Beliefs, Models, and Reality6
- Chapter 3: Arguments, Assumptions, and Inference7
- Chapter 4: Uncertainty, Degrees of Belief, and Calibration8
- Chapter 5: Bayesian Thinking from First Principles9
- Chapter 6: Base Rates, Evidence, and Diagnostic Reasoning10
- Chapter 7: Updating Without Overreacting11
- Chapter 8: Cognitive Biases as Predictable Updating Errors12
- Chapter 9: Janusian Thinking: Holding Opposites Together13
- Chapter 10: Productive Paradox and Creative Reframing14
- Chapter 11: Dialectical Thinking: Tension, Negation, and Development15
- Chapter 12: Contradictions, Trade-offs, and Systems16
- Chapter 13: Levels of Analysis and Perspective Shifting17
- Chapter 14: Synthesis Without False Compromise18
- Chapter 15: Comparing the Three Modes of Thought19
- Chapter 16: Integrating Creativity, Conflict, and Probability20
- Chapter 17: Asking Better Questions21
- Chapter 18: Decision-Making Under Ambiguity22
- Chapter 19: Disagreement, Dialogue, and Intellectual Humility23
- Chapter 20: Case Studies in Integrated Critical Thinking24
- Chapter 21: Building a Personal Thinking Practice25
- Chapter 22: Mature Judgment in a Complex World26
- Conclusion27